In this week’s Monday Macro View, we’re watching how U.S. shale is leaning harder on completions to keep production steady just as OPEC+ barrels start flooding back into the market. The latest data shows that Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count rose to 174 last week, with the Frac Job Count matching that gain at 203. Rigs edged up to 542, and production remains stable despite legacy declines. Completions are doing the heavy lifting: new wells in the Permian continue to add more than 1 million b/d on a one-year trend, while Eagle Ford contributes around 73–76 kb/d and Bakken roughly 60 kb/d. Those gains are offsetting steep base declines — over 420 kb/d in the Permian and 60–80 kb/d each in Eagle Ford and Bakken — keeping overall output flat.
Our Market Sentiment Tracker speaks about the fact that global economy is now beyond recession vs soft landing phase. U.S. consumer demand is still holding up — August core retail sales rose 0.7% m/m, manufacturing stabilized, and jobless claims ticked down. But housing is weakening (starts -8.5%, permits -3.7%) and the Conference Board’s leading index slipped again. The Fed’s cut to 4.25% was less a celebration than a precaution. Europe’s picture is similar: sentiment and output improved, inflation hovered near target, but profit margins narrowed. China stayed steady but uninspired, sticking to incremental policy moves. The bigger story is late-cycle fragility — growth hasn’t cracked, but the base it rests on is getting thinner, leaving policy stuck between cushioning the slowdown and fighting residual inflation.
On the company front, STEP Energy Services continues to push technology to the center of its strategy. Its NGx natural-gas-powered fracturing unit achieved up to 90% diesel displacement, with four more units approved for deployment in early 2026. Adoption of Coil Plus is expanding, and the first Canadian program is imminent. KLX Energy Services sees Q3 2025 as its strongest quarter, driven by completions restarts, customer awards, and disciplined execution. Sequential revenue growth in the low- to mid-single digits and margin expansion are expected, supported by LNG export growth and stronger gas fundamentals. Dry gas revenue rose 25% sequentially, and budget exhaustion risks are limited in Haynesville though higher in Marcellus and Utica.
The big picture is clear: shale’s completions engine is offsetting decline rates and keeping production stable, OPEC+ supply is being absorbed by Chinese buying, and macro conditions are holding but vulnerable. None of those supports are guaranteed. If completions falter, OPEC+ miscalculates, or demand slips, the balance could tip quickly. For now, stability holds — but it’s a narrow stability.