This week our Mondy Macro View for our Enterprise Subscribers look at the FJC and FSC numbers by Shale basins. Some interesting insights emerge: It shows that in the Permian, spreads fell from 119 in March to 82 by late July, a 32% drop. But completions barely budged. Also, Western Gulf and Williston, saw moderate spread declines that didn’t translate into job count losses. In contrast, Appalachian remained remarkably stable, confirming its role as a more programmatic basin. In all cases, Primary Vision’s forecast model (PVFM) accurately captured these dynamics—actual completions largely stayed within our 80% and 95% confidence intervals.
While shale operators recalibrate, China is doing the same on the macro front. Our Market Sentiment Tracker explores China’s economic health in 2H of 2025. It shows government debt to remain under control. New loans and credit are surging again, but construction-linked sectors like cement are still shrinking. Oil demand reflects this tension. China continues to stockpile aggressively—adding 82 million barrels in Q2 alone—yet actual consumption growth is modest. Demand is shifting from industrial use to transport and strategic storage. The message is clear: Beijing isn’t betting on a stimulus boom. It’s planning for long-term energy security under soft demand conditions.
NOV’s Q2 data confirms that softness in North American drilling is here, but the company isn’t standing still. While new order bookings fell, and Q3 guidance is down 1–3%, with adjusted EBITDA set to fall by 5%, the offshore remains strong, and revenues from Energy Products & Services grew 5% YoY. Nabors’ Q2 was a mixed bag. U.S. and Saudi drilling drove segment gains, especially from the SANAD JV and Parker Wellbore integration. Cash flow turned positive in Q2 and revenues grew, but net income slipped to a $30.9M loss. Debt remains high at 4.2x D/E, but margin gains in U.S. drilling (+2%) and new rig awards from Aramco show a path forward. It’s a levered bet on higher utilization and Saudi-led growth—one that depends on execution and discipline. ProPetro expects its active frac spread count to drop to 10–11 in Q3 amid falling oil prices, tariffs, and operator pullback. Despite a $7M net loss, nearly half its HHP remains locked in long-term contracts. Its PROPWR electric and gas-powered fleet expansion continues, with $170M capex allocated for 2025. Q2 saw a 24% EBITDA drop and lower asset utilization due to weaker completions and weather-related disruptions.